Bitcoin could surpass gold’s $34 trillion market if it evolves into a global currency, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says amid Iran conflict.
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Bitcoin could expand beyond gold’s estimated $33–34 trillion market if it evolves into both a store of value and a global currency, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management.
In a recent note, Hougan said rising geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Iran conflict, are reshaping how financial systems are accessed, with Bitcoin emerging as an alternative to traditional payment networks. “In a world where countries have weaponised their financial rails, Bitcoin is emerging as an apolitical alternative,” he wrote.
The comments come as reports suggest Iran has explored charging oil tankers a transit toll in cryptocurrency, including Bitcoin, for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal, cited by Financial Times and Reuters, involves a fee of about $1 per barrel, potentially resulting in multi-million dollar payments for large vessels.
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a fifth of global oil flows and has seen disruptions in vessel movement amid heightened military tensions linked to the conflict.
The United States government has opposed any attempt to impose such tolls on international shipping. Donald Trump has said charging vessels for passage would violate maritime norms, while shipping industry bodies have flagged legal and operational risks tied to such mechanisms.
Hougan said these developments reflect a broader shift where access to global financial systems is increasingly shaped by geopolitical decisions, including sanctions and restrictions on payment networks.
Bitcoin’s two-part investment thesis
Bitwise has long positioned Bitcoin as a competitor to gold in the global store-of-value market. Hougan said that view remains intact but is now expanding to include a second use case, Bitcoin as a transactional currency for cross-border trade.
He said investors are effectively making two bets: that Bitcoin can function as “digital gold,” and that it could eventually operate as a global payments currency.
Bitwise has previously estimated that Bitcoin could reach $1 million over time if it captures about 17 percent of the global store-of-value market, a projection framed over a multi-year period.
Hougan added that if Bitcoin begins to serve both as a store of value and a currency, its total addressable market would expand beyond gold, though he did not provide a revised valuation estimate.
Geopolitics driving alternative financial systems
The potential use of cryptocurrency in state-linked transactions reflects a wider shift among countries facing financial restrictions, particularly those seeking alternatives to dollar-based systems.
Hougan pointed to Russia’s removal from the SWIFT financial messaging system in 2022 as a turning point that pushed countries to explore parallel financial infrastructure.
He said the current Iran conflict increases both the likelihood of Bitcoin being used in a currency-like role and volatility in the global monetary order, two factors that could shape its long-term valuation.
Market context: Bitcoin vs gold
Bitcoin’s current market capitalisation stands at about $1.4 trillion, compared with an estimated $33–34 trillion for gold, underscoring the scale gap in Bitwise’s projections.
Hougan said the discussion around using cryptocurrency in shipping payments is among the earliest examples of how geopolitical tensions could intersect with alternative financial systems, while also raising concerns over sanctions compliance and monitoring.
